Monday, 6 March 2017

Stas Update: Week XI, The Dash to Greatness

As we embark on the final two week sprint to the Challenge's end, let take a few moments to contemplate the path that lead us here.  As there is no greater tool for contemplation than statistics, I have provided our beloved KPI summary out of the kindness of my heart.

You're welcome.

Of course, when I refer to "kindness off my heart", I'm really referring to the soul devouring dark arts of the Mathamagician and the required animal sacrifices and other less-than-reputable acts needed to distill the essence of miniature painting art into numbers with up to three decimal places.  Some of you fools have begged that we go to four decimal places but not even I would risk such blasphemy.

Without further ado, lets us gaze upon then wonder that is our KPI Table and revel in our progress through 11 weeks:

Weeks Completed24681113
Weeks Remaining1197520
Participants w/ a Submission4781969696
Total Submissions89239417540715
Total Points7,71121,90636,63248,90563,127
Participation Rate47%81%100%100%100%
Average per Submitter164270382509658
Avg per Submission8792889188
Submitter % of Target Completed16%32%48%65%83%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds9,2616,7875,8514,2551,750
Non Submitters @ 25%13,3581,657000
Projected Total Points72,74178,39484,68782,72075,885
Figures Painted
Cav / Art69155305425545
Cav / Art28178285361513
Cav / Art1118108187195
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"0%11%13%9%9%
Other Scales4%9%17%15%15%

Impressive isn't it?

There have been 715 submissions from 96 stalwart participants through 11 weeks of grueling painting trials.  The average submission in hovering around 88-90 points and has been remarkably consistent over the course of Challenge VII.

Total points to date stand at 63,127, and are a just a tiny bit below the final score from last year's challenge of 64,690 with two weeks to go.

We've been steadily inching up in terms of % of the cumulative targets met and now stand at 83%, although there have been rumors that this stat has been artificially inflated by scoundrels who have set their initial targets to low.  I don't know who these statistical miscreants are but surely justice shall be done to them sometime.

What does the "Point-O-Projector" say will be the final score?  Lets find out, please pass me the kittens to lubricate the gears and then turn that crank over there.  Feel free to help me with the incantations and out pops a projected total score of 76K points.  That's a new world record.  Pretty darn inspiring.  Of course that means we need to point 13K of points over the next two weeks so lets get cracking - paint, you beautiful bastards, PAINT!  I would be very sad if you failed to meet the expectations of the Point-O-Projector.

A comparison to last year at week 11 confirms we're on course for an earth shattering result.  I'm sure there will be lots of international media coverage and lucrative movie and book contracts for most of us.  Those of you without professional representation should really consider engaging some now.

Weeks Completed1111
Weeks Remaining22
Participants w/ a Submission9670
Total Submissions715590
Total Points63,12751,599
Participation Rate100%80%
Average per Submitter658716
Avg per Submission88100
Submitter % of Target Completed83%82%
Projected Points
Remaining Bouns Rounds1,7502,500
Non Submitters @ 50%0302
Projected Total Points75,88563,613
Figures Painted
Cav / Art545471
Cav / Art513230
Cav / Art195362
Score Distribution
Bonus Round "Bonus Points"9%10%
Other Scales15%24%

I know these stats are wonderful depictions and all of you think of them as beloved family members for the joy they bring to your drab existences, but there's one burning question that I haven't answered. One that all of you hunger to have the knowledge of.  The question? - which day of the week/minion group is the best, of course.  First, I'd like to say that it's difficult to pick a single winner as every day of the week/minion group is special and you all are winners in my view.  In fact there are participation trophies....  Ah screw that crap, lets get to the numbers and see who wins.

I adjusted the summary tables to sum on Minion/Day of the week and was surprised by the results - mathematical science has proven that Monday, indeed, RULES!!!!  How do I know this?  Prepare to be amazed:

Minion# ChallengersTarget PtsActual Pts% Target Met% of Total PointsPts/ChallengerOvr/Undr Index
Any Day11,00055755.70%0.88%557.000.84
Grand Total9675,95063,30483.35%100.00%659.421.00

It seems that the Monday group started with a bit of an advantage as it had, by far, the highest target set of points (somewhere I hear a Snow Lord chuckling), so looking at total points would be unfair and Monday towers over the other days of the week.  We could look at % of target completed and see that shockingly Monday comes in second to another day of the week.  Further analysis points out the rather low target from that group so this result must be tossed as it detracts from the Monday Rocks messaging.

What to do - Ahh the over/under index which compares the actual points per painter from each group vs the average of the entire challenge - any score over 1.00 indicates your ahead of the pack.  What does the math show - Monday crushes the competition with an index score of 1.67!  It just can't be any clearer Monday's Awesomeness is record shattering.  Legally, I'm pretty sure this performance means the other days of the week owe the Monday crew some form of tribute.

Some of the more sharp eyed of you may have noticed the total points in that last table are slightly higher than the others.  That's because there were a few more Monday entries that were entered before I pulled in the the last table and I was just too lazy to update the rest.

Well there you have it, week 11 is in the books and we've got 2 weeks left to paint 13K points.  Why the hell are you still reading this drivel?  You've got mini's to paint.  DO NOT DISAPPOINT THE PAINTING GODS!!!!!!!